What Our 2025 Renewal Data Is Really Telling Us


Steve Welty

Issue# 86

February 2026

Happy Saturday, Housing Heroes,

We just wrapped up our second quarterly market sync with our Sales, Leasing, and Property Management teams. These meetings aren’t about trends we read online or hot takes from Reddit, they’re about what’s actually happening across the homes we manage every day.

And honestly, the takeaway was pretty simple:

The rental market isn’t on fire.
It’s not falling apart either.
It’s leveling out.

Nothing dramatic. Nothing flashy. Just normal.

And when the market feels normal again, results stop being about luck or timing and start being about execution.

Here’s what we’re seeing on the ground and what it means for you.

Renewals Tell the Story

Across the Good Life portfolio in 2025, we saw a healthy renewal rate of ~82%. In some periods, it was even higher.

That matters.

In unstable markets, renewals drop fast. That’s not what’s happening here.

Just as important is how those renewals are pricing:

  • Average renewal increase: ~2–3%
  • Median increase: just over 2%
  • Over one-third of renewals were flat
  • Nearly 60% landed at 3% or less
  • Double-digit increases were rare

That wasn’t accidental.

Renewal pricing has been intentionally conservative. In this environment, stability often outperforms aggressive rent pushes that risk vacancy, friction, or slower re-leasing.

The Second Half of the Year Required More Discipline

When we split the year in half, another pattern shows up.

In the first half of 2025, renewal increases were slightly higher and flat renewals were less common.

In the second half, pricing cooled:

  • Lower average increases
  • More flat renewals
  • Less tolerance for “testing high”

This wasn’t about demand disappearing. It was about the market requiring a more measured approach as the year went on.

Why Tenants Are Moving (When They Do)

Renewal data shows how tenants respond. Our Leasing and PM teams help explain why.

The most common reasons we’re seeing for move-outs are life-driven, not dissatisfaction-driven:

  • Moving out of state
  • Moving in with a partner
  • Job transfers
  • Roommate changes to manage cost

In short, most tenants aren’t leaving because they hate the home or the rent. They’re adjusting their lives.

That distinction matters in a stabilized market.

Pricing Power Is More Limited and Tenants Know It

Renewal behavior reinforces something we’re seeing daily:

In most cases, there’s limited justification for aggressive increases unless a property is clearly under-market or meaningfully improved.

We’re also seeing more negotiation at renewal:

  • Requests to keep rent the same
  • Willingness to accept modest increases tied to upgrades
  • Comparisons to nearby listings being used as leverage

For owners who rented at peak pricing earlier in the cycle, here’s the reality check we’re having often:

“My last renter paid more, shouldn’t we raise it?”

In many cases right now, the answer is no.

That’s not failure. That’s the market normalizing. And fighting it usually costs more than working with it.

The Biggest Divider Right Now: Property Investment

One trend came up across every department:

Owners who invest in their properties are winning.

For years, minimal turns - paint, carpet cleaning, light repairs were enough to command strong rents. That’s no longer true for many homes.

Older properties are now competing with:

  • Newly built rentals
  • Recently renovated units
  • Higher tenant expectations

Homes with visible, meaningful improvements are seeing:

  • Faster leasing
  • Fewer vacancy days
  • More defensible rents

Landscaping, bathrooms, kitchens, and other tenant-facing upgrades consistently show strong ROI.

If your property hasn’t been upgraded in years and you’ve had a solid income cycle, the next turnover is often the right moment to reinvest. If that’s not feasible now, planning over the next 2–5 years can be the difference between chasing the market and leading it.

Selling Is Still the Main Exit

When owners do leave Good Life, the most common reason is selling, not operational frustration.

That makes planning especially important, particularly for owners who previously lived in their rental. Understanding renewal timing, pricing strategy, and tax considerations before making a move can materially change outcomes.

This is one of the most common “wish I knew sooner” conversations we have.

The Bottom Line

The market isn’t broken.

It’s normalized.

Renewals are strong. Increases are modest. Flat renewals are common. Pricing power is limited without investment. And the owners who perform best in 2026 will be the ones who:

  • Price realistically
  • Invest thoughtfully
  • Stay flexible
  • Make decisions based on today’s market, not last year’s

If you’re heading into a renewal, planning for a vacancy, debating upgrades, or weighing whether to hold or sell over the next 12–24 months, shoot me an email. I’m always happy to talk through your options and help you make a clear, well-informed decision.

Steve


Defer Capital Gains. Reinvest Smarter.

Join our live 1031 Exchange webinar to learn how real estate investors legally defer capital gains, stay IRS-compliant, and grow their portfolios with confidence.

Best for: Landlords · Investors · Realtors

What you’ll learn:

  • How 1031 Exchanges actually work
  • Key timelines, rules, and common mistakes
  • CPA-led compliance and post-closing strategy
  • Passive and alternative reinvestment options

Featuring:

Ryan Prazen (Good Life PM) · Jake Schiro (APX 1031) · Ray Simmons, CPA


P.S. We recently expanded our newsletter into a private Facebook group where we share housing market insights, landlord tips, and behind-the-scenes data from what we’re seeing across California and where you can also connect and interact with other housing providers. We’d love for you to be a part of it.


Have questions about managing your property?

Our team proudly serves San Diego, Orange, and Riverside Counties. Schedule a call with us today, and let’s chat about how we can guide you through every step of your property management journey.


Steve Welty

CEO @ Good Life Property Management

DRE #01744610

5252 Balboa Ave #704, San Diego, California 92117
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The Housing Hero Newsletter By Steve Welty

Passionate about bringing positivity and fresh perspectives to the rental property industry CEO @ Good Life Property Management San Diego and Orange County. Managing over 1,300 units in San Diego and Orange County.

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